Testing hypotheses in evolutionary ecology with imperfect detection: capture-recapture structural equation modeling

Studying evolutionary mechanisms in natural populations often requires testing multifactorial scenarios of causality involving direct and indirect relationships among individual and environmental variables. It is also essential to account for the imperfect detection of individuals to provide unbiased demographic parameter estimates. To cope with these issues, we developed a new approach combining structural equation models with capture-recapture models (CR-SEM) that allows the investigation of competing hypotheses about individual and environmental variability observed in demographic parameters. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to (1) estimate model parameters, (2) implement a model selection procedure to evaluate competing hypotheses about causal mechanisms, and (3) assess the fit of models to data using posterior predictive checks. We illustrate the value of our approach using two case studies on wild bird populations. We first show that CR-SEM can be useful to quantify the action of selection on a set of phenotypic traits with an analysis of selection gradients on morphological traits in Common Blackbirds (Turdus merula). In a second case study on Blue Tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), we illustrate the use of CR-SEM to study evolutionary trade-offs in the wild, while accounting for varying environmental conditions.     

When solids meet solids: A glimpse into dust mixture explosions

Mixing an inert solid or a less flammable compound with a combustible dust can be regarded as a direct application of the inherent safety principle of moderation. An experimental investigation was carried out to determine the evolution of the ignition sensitivity and the explosion severity of such various mixtures as a function of their compositions. It demonstrates that the introduction of small amounts of highly combustible powders (such as sulphur or nicotinic acid) to a less flammable dust (such as microcrystalline cellulose or carbon black) can strongly influence the ignition sensitivity as well as the explosion severity.It has notably been shown that the ignition sensitivity of solid/solid mixtures significantly rises up when only 10–5%wt. of highly flammable dust is introduced. Simple models can often be applied to estimate the minimum ignition energy, minimum ignition temperature and minimum explosive concentration of such mixtures. Concerning the dust explosivity, three cases have been studied: mixtures of combustibles dusts without reaction, dusts with reactions between the powders, combustible dusts with inert solid. If the evolution of the maximum explosion pressure can be estimated by using thermodynamic calculations, the maximum rate of pressure rise is more difficult to predict with simple models, and both combustion kinetics and hydrodynamics of the dust clouds should be taken into account. These results were also extended to flammable dust/solid inertant mixture. They clearly show that the concentration of solid inertant at which the ignition is not observed anymore could reach 95%wt. As a consequence, the common recommendation of solid inertant introduction up to 50–80%wt. to prevent dust explosion/ignition should be reconsidered.     

Determination of set-back lines on eroding coasts. Example of the beaches of the Gulf of Lions (French Mediterranean Coast)

The study presented here describes a method for defining set-back lines along eroding coasts. The method (a mathematical model) combines the long-term shoreline retreat trend with short-term shoreline erosion (during storms). Simulations are carried out for 2030 and compared with the beach width to determine whether the shoreline is likely to shift onshore. The mathematical model is applied to the Frontignan and Carnon beaches (south of France). Both sites possess hard engineering coastal structures and downdrift erosion on the natural beaches. The set-back lines indicate that beaches with groynes are generally wide enough to resist shoreline retreat, while the downdrift “natural” beaches are not. We discuss the possible utilisation of set-back line estimations.     

Meta-analysis of susceptibility of woody plants to loss of genetic diversity through habitat fragmentation

Shrubs and trees are assumed less likely to lose genetic variation in response to habitat fragmentation because they have certain life-history characteristics such as long lifespans and extensive pollen flow. To test this assumption, we conducted a meta-analysis with data on 97 woody plant species derived from 98 studies of habitat fragmentation. We measured the weighted response of four different measures of population-level genetic diversity to habitat fragmentation with Hedge's d and Spearman rank correlation. We tested whether the genetic response to habitat fragmentation was mediated by life-history traits (longevity, pollination mode, and seed dispersal vector) and study characteristics (genetic marker and plant material used). For both tests of effect size habitat fragmentation was associated with a substantial decrease in expected heterozygosity, number of alleles, and percentage of polymorphic loci, whereas the population inbreeding coefficient was not associated with these measures. The largest proportion of variation among effect sizes was explained by pollination mechanism and by the age of the tissue (progeny or adult) that was genotyped. Our primary finding was that wind-pollinated trees and shrubs appeared to be as likely to lose genetic variation as insect-pollinated species, indicating that severe habitat fragmentation may lead to pollen limitation and limited gene flow. In comparison with results of previous meta-analyses on mainly herbaceous species, we found trees and shrubs were as likely to have negative genetic responses to habitat fragmentation as herbaceous species. We also found that the genetic variation in offspring was generally less than that of adult trees, which is evidence of a genetic extinction debt and probably reflects the genetic diversity of the historical, less-fragmented landscape.     

Optimal feed profile for a second order reaction in a semi-batch reactor under safety constraints: Experimental study

Maximising the yield of the second order reaction (2-butanol+propionic anhydride) by manipulating the inlet flow rate is considered for an isothermal semi-batch process. First a procedure for the determination of the kinetic parameters using coupled spectroscopic and calorimetric methods is presented. Then an optimisation of the reaction system is performed numerically and verified experimentally. Constraints on the amount of heat produced and on the temperature attainable in the case of cooling failure are imposed for safety consideration.     

Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen: a simulation analysis

Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts can have devastating consequences for individual well being and economic development, in particular in poor societies with limited availability of coping mechanisms. Combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Yemeni economy with a household‐level calorie consumption simulation model, this paper assesses the economy‐wide, agricultural and food security effects of the 2008 tropical storm and flash flood that hit the Hadramout and Al‐Mahrah governorates. The estimation results suggest that agricultural value added, farm household incomes and rural food security deteriorated long term in the flood‐affected areas. Due to economic spillover effects, significant income losses and increases in food insecurity also occurred in areas that were unaffected by flooding. This finding suggests that while most relief efforts are typically concentrated in directly affected areas, future efforts should also consider surrounding areas and indirectly affected people.     

Use of blood parameters in fish to assess acidic stress and chloride pollution in French running waters

The study investigated whether plasmatic parameters in fish such as Cl- content could serve as physiological indicators to evaluate water quality. The variations of plasma Cl- content in two fish species caught in a wide range of rivers representative of the hydrographic system of Lorraine (N-E France) were investigated. First, we studied autochthonous populations of chub (Leuciscus cephalus) which is a widespread species in the rivers of Lorraine. Organisms living in highly mineralised rivers (>1500 microScm(-1))--either naturally or due to salt mine contamination--showed plasma Cl- content significantly greater than organisms living in river with a lower mineralisation. Second, we investigated plasma Cl- content of brown trout (Salmo trutta fario) in poorly mineralised streams (<80 microS cm(-1)) with different degrees of acidification, both on autochthonous and transferred organisms. While indigenous trout maintained their Cl- content even in the acidic streams, transferred trout exhibited an important decrease of Cl- content after 48 h of exposure under acidic conditions.     

Adjustment of parental effort to manipulated foraging ability in a pelagic seabird,the thin-billed prion Pachyptila belcheri

An experiment was designed to examine in a long-lived seabird, the thin-billed prion (Pachyptila belcheri), how adults adjust their food provisioning strategy when their foraging abilities are reduced and when the chick's needs are increased. To reduce the foraging abilities of adults we impaired their flying ability by removing some flight feathers (handicapped), and to increase the food needs of the chick one parent was retained (single). Birds made either short foraging trips lasting 1–3 days, or long trips lasting 5–9 days. Control birds alternated long and short trips whereas single birds or handicapped birds made several successive short trips and thereafter a long trip. In each treatment, food loads tended to be heavier after long trips than after short trips, and single birds tended to bring heavier loads than control or handicapped birds. Birds in the three treatments lost similar amounts of mass after short trips and gained similar amounts of mass after long trips. However, the mass of handicapped birds declined through the experiment, while that of control and single birds remained stable. Although the proportion of chicks that died during the experiment was similar among the three treatments, the chicks fledged by a single bird were lighter than those in control nests. The results of the experiment suggest that thin-billed prions adjust their breeding effort differently to decreased flying ability or increased food demand by the chick. Single birds increase foraging effort without allowing their condition to deteriorate. Conversely, handicapped birds are unable to maintain their body condition while sustaining the chick at the same rate as control birds. It is suggested that in this long-lived seabird, adults probably adjust their breeding effort so that they do not incur the risk of an increased mortality, this risk being monitored by the body condition.     

Water to atmosphere fluxes of 131I in relation with alkyl-iodide compounds from the Seine Estuary (France)

This study presents an original work on measurements of stable and radioactive iodinated species in the Seine estuary (France), with estimates fluxes of volatile gaseous species from water to the atmosphere. Various iodinated compounds were identified in water and air in particular 131I in water, what is unusual. Concentrations and behaviour of iodinated elements in the Seine estuary seem similar to what has been observed in other European estuaries. MeI (Methyl Iodide) and Total Volatile Iodine (TVI) fluxes from water to air vary between 392 and 13949 pmol m(-2) d(-1) and between 1279 and 16484 pmol m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Water to air flux of TVI for the Seine river was estimated in the range 4-46 kg y(-1). Measurements of (131)I in water varying between 0.4 and 11.9 Bq m(-3). Fluxes of (131)I from water to atmosphere are in the range 2.4 x 10(5)-1.3 x 10(7)Bq y(-1), close to an annual discharge of (131)I by a nuclear reactor.